Friday, September 29, 2006

Is Islam waging war on the world?

A question I’ve asked myself for a considerable time now is: is Islam waging war on the rest of the world? I read the same stories in the media that everyone else read, and apart from a few truly spectacular terrorist events that were well reported, and put down to the actions of “extremists”: nothing much. But I kept having that feeling, so I began to wonder if perhaps I was just paranoid. After all, I told myself, I read the Guardian from front to back almost every day from early 1982 until the Spring just gone. I also listened to BBC Radio 4 – to the virtual exclusion of all else, including television – every day for those same years. Every day I listened to one of Today, World at One, PM, Six o-Clock News, News at Ten, News at Midnight, and occasionally all six. I must be well-informed, I convinced myself, because these are two of the world’s premier media organisations; if there was anything to report, they would have reported it. Maybe I am just paranoid after all, I thought, because nothing I read or listened to confirmed the suspicion that led me to ask the question. And through all this listening to Politically Correct journalists and politicians, I had become as politically correct as the best of them. Or, perhaps I should say: worst of them.

Then, a little under six months ago, I bought a computer …

To smugly consider yourself exceptionally well-informed about current affairs – despite this sneaking suspicion about Islam – and then to discover that you have been in fact – one can only suppose deliberately - kept in utter ignorance is truly a shock to the system. The Guardian and the BBC, and all who work for them, have lost themselves a good friend and staunch defender. As has the rest of the mainstream media I should add, along with most of our political and social elites – undifferentiated by party or profession.

During all the ins and outs of learning to find my way around the internet, I encountered, quite by an accident of curiosity, a place called “Western Resistance”, which really opened my eyes to Islam-related events in the world That, in a roundabout way, led me to another place called “Religion of Peace”. There I found a list of all Islamic terror attacks worldwide since September 11th 2001.

Pretty much all that follows comes from that list, which is updated on a daily basis. It makes horrifying reading: horrifying in the details of the attacks it describes; and also horrifying in how it quite clearly demonstrates the ignorance our media, and political and social elites, keeps us in.

Initially, I couldn’t make a lot of sense out of this undifferentiated list of attacks.A little under six thousand attacks in five years. It was just line after line of text. You could make yourself dizzy just looking at it. So I downloaded the lot, and reformatted them into a word file, separating the text of each attack, for easier reading. 278 pages A4, font size 12. It’s a lot of reading.

I became obsessed with these lists. What are they telling me, I asked myself?

Now then, you can pretty well divide humanity up into two types of people: counters, and non-counters (and wont a psychologist have fun with this one). Me? I’m a counter. For example, when I walk into a room I’ll start counting things; first I’ll count them top to bottom, then side to side, I’ll count those same things in pairs, groups of three, fours. I just count in lots of different ways. I started counting the lists in different ways, and started deriving new lists from the originals.

One set of the derived lists was just numbers. No details, numbers only. I made a list of the number of attacks each month for the five years from September 2001 to August 2006. Sixty months. A convenient number, as you will see.

I could vaguely see that attacks were higher now than five years ago, but I still couldn’t make a lot of sense of it. It was just a mass of numbers making me even dizzier than I already was. Brainwave – make a picture! Look at what I found: these are the Islamic attacks worldwide on a monthly basis.

Graph 1

Yes. Informative. Getting a better idea of the problem. From something well under fifty attacks a month five years ago – which is only about twelve a week worldwide, it’s now between 150 and 200 attacks a month, and has twice broken through the 200 line in recent months. But surely it’s just the horror in Iraq that’s causing that rise? “It’s all about Iraq”, remember. So I counted a new list of month-by-month numbers, this time leaving out all attacks in Iraq. Surely that would bring the line back into the horizontal?

Nothing of the sort.

Graph 2

Well, the absolute numbers were down, but I couldn’t discern any real difference in the pattern. My nose was beginning to tell me that there was a smell here, but I couldn’t work out what it was. It certainly wasn’t what I at first thought it was:Iraq.

Ok then. Perhaps it’s Iraq and Afghanistan that’s bringing about the increase? After all, our media is constantly telling us that that’s where our problems with Islam are. So: a new set of numbers that lists Islamic attacks worldwide, but excluding Iraq and afghanistan.

No, not that either, it seems.

Graph 3

Well, again the numbers were down, but not by very much this time. But I was disappointed and getting increasingly frustrated. The pattern is unchanged; and apart from some small movement up and down the number scale, I found it rather difficult to discern any difference between these three graphs.

Have a think for a moment. Are you like I was? That is, did you think there has been a steady drip drip of Islamic attacks in Thailand, seemingly forever? Not so!

While I was going through all these numbers trying to work out why I couldn’t bring the line down to something resembling the horizontal, I suddenly – and it was a shock – noticed that before January 2004 there had not been a single Islamic attack in Thailand, but there has been an accelerating number of attacks there since that date. It looks very much like the deliberate opening of another front in the war. So of course, a picture being worth a thousand words, as it’s said, I made another picture.

Graph 4

Ah! Got it, I thought. That must be why I couldn’t bring the line down.

Digression. Let’s consider this picture for a moment. My downloaded data hasn’t been analysed for this month, but I’ve noticed that there have been only two attacks in Thailand since the coup on the September 19th.

Compare that to the number of attacks in Thailand last month (August): thirty. That is an attack rate of almost one a day. Has anyone noticed that the coup leader in Thailand is a Muslim?

I think it might be a good thing if a campaign was to be mounted demanding that the king of Thailand leave the country, with all his family, friends and staff, and then give an opinion on the coup. Maybe it’s the old paranioa kicking in again, but I think the evidence indicates there may be a connection between the Islamic attacks and the general. I believe the king may currently be under duress when he talks of the coup. A hostage? We know Muslims do that. Perhaps someone could take this matter up?

Digression over. Now armed with what I was certain would bring that line down, I made another picture, of all attacks excluding Iraq, Afghanistan and Thailand.

Graph 5.

As would be expected, the actual numbers are down again. But yet again, that same pattern. Attacks in earlier months sometimes dropping below thirty per month, but recently getting to up over ninety. So, we have many more attacks now than we did five years ago, even when we ignore Iraq, Afghanistan and Thailand.

As the pattern remains unchanging no matter what I do, then from here on in, I’ll only draw pictures of all attacks. The pattern is consistent whatever we exclude, so why bother excluding anything?

If anyone wants to draw their own pictures, e-mail me via my profile, and I’ll send you all the raw data. It’ll be slow if you’re on dial-up, because it’s by the megabyte. Indeed, if you just want the attack files in a more easily readable form than on Religion of Peace, then e-mail me and I’ll send them to you (including the one I call “Specials” – not for the faint-hearted: there is some serious sadism out there in the psychology of Islam).

Apart from being able to tell that attacks have increased over five years, the graphs are far too jerky, the numbers fluctuating, jumping about too much to get any more information than that from the data (well, at least for now. From the perspective of later knowledge, we’ll go back for another look). However, data is like the patterns of a work of art: what patterns you see, what you get out of it, very much depends on how far away you look at it from. You have to play with data. So I decided to look at it by averaging the attacks every three months, just to see what might pop up out of the picture. This proved to be rather productive.

Graph 6

You can’t see how it’s much different from the pictures of attacks on a monthly basis? Ah, but it is very different. Something is very much clearer now. It was there to be seen in the earlier pictures, but with the line jumping about so much, it was difficult to see. Let me explain, and during the course of that explanation, we’ll revisit the earlier pictures, and armed with our new knowledge, we can extract yet more information from them.

From this picture it’s immediately apparent that the attacks come in surges, with a fall-back between surges, as if they’re girding their loins for the next surge. Every new surge goes higher than the one before, and every fall-back doesn’t fall back as far as the previous one. It also looks as if the height of the surges is accelerating – each one increases attacks by a greater amount than the previous one did. It’s not absolutely certain from this view, but we can return to it later. There is a ratchet in operation.

Also, you might have noticed that we are currently in a fall-back stage, and might be wondering when the next surge will start? Strange as it may seem, the world is currently experiencing a – relative – lull in terrorist attacks, with another surge about to begin. Well, that’s what it looks like from this picture, but let’s revisit the monthly pictures armed with this new insight.

Go back to Graph 5, and you can only just about discern that the lull is already over. There’s been an upturn, and we’re right at the start of another surge. If you go further back into graphs 3, 2, and 1, you’ll see that we’re actually well into it. I wonder how long this surge will go on for, and how high it will go? Hold onto your hats. As we’ve seen, this is not just Iraq, Afghanistan and Thailand: it’s the whole world, as evidenced by graph 5, which does not include those three places, though it must be conceded that Afghanistan, and especially Iraq, will most likely be where most – though by no means all - of the surge happens.

Recent reports of riots in Thailand protesting the coup tell me to expect the attacks in Thailand to take off again – the General in charge may need an excuse to clamp down in order to maintain the coup outcome. Such attacks would give him an excuse that, on the face of it, would seem valid to the rest of the world. We need to keep a weather eye out for this possibility. And I am more convinced than ever that this Muslim general is giving the orders for the attacks. We urgently need a campaign to get the king out of there to be able to voice a true opinion. Please, someone?

As you’ve just seen, when you look at the data from further and further away, you gain some information, you lose some information. There, we clearly gained the surge/lull information, but it happened that we’d lost the information telling us we’re not waiting now for the next surge to start:we’re already into the beginning of it.

We can also extract a little more information from this latest picture.

Several times in the past year or two, both politicians and media have claimed that attacks are reducing, that we’re getting on top of the problem. Well, at the times they said it they probably genuinely believed it – because as we’ve seen, between each surge there’s a fallback, and during the fallback, of course, attacks are reducing.

Their problem is that they don’t see the data from far enough away, or over a long enough time period to get a proper picture. They see some apparently good news, on a short-term basis, and rush to get it out to us to convince us of something we can’t be convinced about: that they know what they’re doing. Are they wilfully blind? Or just stupid. I’ll leave that one to you.

There is still a question hanging from that last picture: are the attacks accelerating? It looked like they might be, but it wasn’t entirely clear.

Time to take yet another step back from the data, and look at it from a little further away. It might turn up the information we need to answer that question. Let’s look at a picture of the data averaging monthly attacks over six-month periods.

Graph 7

Well, it’s hard to tell whether that’s a positive (attacks accelerating), arithmetic (steady increase) or negative (attacks decelerating) curve. It looks very much like a straight line to me, but very steep. We have to take things as we find them. About the only new information we can find here is the surge/fall-back picture on a larger and clearer scale, though we have lost any sense of having currently gone into a fall-back, and just starting a new surge. If it is an arithmetic curve, it’s certainly a very steep one and is nothing to be optimistic about.

I’ll return to this issue of whether the attacks are accelerating when I have another six months’ data to work with.

In the meantime I have to conclude that I never was paranoid, and that there really is a war being waged by Islam against the whole world, and it is intensifying by the day. The main problem with it is that the leadership, and most of the population, of only one side in this war knows it. Or at least, knows the full extent of it. The leadership and most of the population of the other (our) side of it are, in psychological-technical terms, in Denial. Given the rate of increase in attacks, then though that might be comforting to them in the short-term, in the long term it may prove disastrous, though I cannot see that our side would ultimately lose. What the data does show is that the sooner this war is addressed as a war, and in respect of its full worldwide extent, the easier and less damaging to us it will be to win.

Recently, the Pentagon issued a report stating that our presence in Iraq, and possibly Afghanistan, is acting as a recruiting sergeant for the enemy, and that they are doing no more – nor less – than their holy texts tell them they must do. I believe there are indications just from the data presented here that this is probably true. I will return to this on my next post.

Another question that this data may contribute towards answering, is whether or not there is a controlling mind (organisation) conducting this war on the enemy’s behalf. I believe the data also contributes to an understanding of how they are conducting the war at a tactical level. The timing of the start of the terrorist attacks in Thailand, in conjuction with the other data here, has a contribution to make towards resolving these questions. I will return to them in my next posting.

Also relevant: should we expect the opening of yet another front in this war? If that should happen, then there really will be no further room to doubt a controlling mind (organisation). There is no reason to suppose that this must be bin Laden and al Qaeda, though it could be.

Where is this war being conducted? Overwhelmingly it is in those places where Islam is present in force, though targets of opportunity are occasionally hit. That is clear from the written details of all the worldwide attacks. This carries serious implications concerning the large Muslim populations currently present in all countries of the Western world. This Muslim presence has to be addressed as a matter of urgency. Western Europe, in particular, may be sleepwalking its way into a situation similar to that of Beirut Circa. 1970s. Or perhaps just – and this is bad enough – India today. Read those lists: over the past five years to date, India has had more attacks than any other country.

For those who might like to claim that all I’m doing is playing with statistics, and that you can make statistics say anything you want, I assert that I am not playing with statistics: you only play with statistics when you are calculating using a sample from a population (in this case, the population of Islamic terror attacks over the past five years). I am using the entire population – there is no need to use statistics. The numbers I use are the real thing. I just look at them in varying ways, that’s all.

Many thanks to Religion of Peace for compiling the data used in this work. If anyone considers this post to have been useful, and you have a little money to spare, go to Religion of Peace and make a donation.

http://www.thereligionofpeace.com/

http://www.westernresistance.com/

http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=52184

Question:

Should we make friends again with Saddam? Next post.

47 Comments:

Blogger Yorkshireminer said...

May I be the first to congratulate you on the Blogg Sir Henry. You have written a great piece. There must be a formula somewhere for the graph so that you can use it for approximately predicting future trends, although it is obvious the trend is up. By the way it would be nice to know when the upward trend of the graph crossed the tolerance line of the non muslims and instigated a backlash, a situation that theses people are to stupid to realise will happen if they keep on as they are doing.

4:03 PM  
Blogger Sir Henry Morgan said...

Miner

Good to see you here. You have no idea how nervous I was about this, the first blog post I've ever made. Commenting on other people's blogs has been easy for me, being the thug that I am, but when you actually put yourself up for some stick, it's nowhere near as easy. My confidence will grow.

I intend to get onto at least the first of those questions - future trends - after another post or two dealing with what's already happened. I've still got a bit of mining of my own to do, so to speak, with the data I'm dealing with here. There's more to extract from it.

As for your second question: excellent. It just hadn't occurred to me. I'll look into it; but I'd find it enormously helpful if you could do a bit of mining for me - we never entirely out-grow our roots - and see if you can't find some relevant addresses for me to go to: mosque attacks springs to mind as evidence of backlash, anything where I can get numbers to compare against the numbers I already have, with approx dates; levels for, e.g. BNP; membership or support would be useful, going back, say, five years; ditto for Front National in France, same for nationalist parties in other countries. Attacks against muslims at the street level, here and abroad, with approx dates. It's when there's a change to background levels of such things; that's where we start getting real information.

You're plugged into the continent a bit better than I am, and I am, anyway, a beginner at this computer/internet stuff. One thing I'm going to have to learn is how to set up an internet trawl for the sort of stuff I need for that.

Numbers. That's what I need. If I put up some polemic, or some other sort of argument in words, that can be shredded, but it's hard to shred numbers. Or film (that's what got me banned from the Guardian the last time I was banned - posted a link to a stoning. Couldn't argue against it, so banned me.

Take care, rough out there.

5:41 PM  
Blogger Sir Henry Morgan said...

I just noticed that I hadn,t ticked the box for e-mails in my profile. I apologise for this and have corrected it.

Sorry, to all who may have tried e-mailing me for the raw data.

The e-mail facility is now in place.

8:09 PM  
Blogger Yorkshireminer said...

Dear Sir Henry,

Do some mining for you, you have got a hope I am allergic to shovels and have been for the last forty odd years, ever since I went down the mines at 15 and they presented with one, in fact the slang for a shovel in the mine where I worked was an Oscar because you were presented with one when you started work. Your didn't say to your work mate, “ would you be so kind as to pass me that shovel “you said “pass me that bloody Oscar will thee.” I have posted a few links to your Blogg so hopefully you will get a bit of traffic. What I will do instead of doing a bit of mining for you is to try and find the statistics that you have asked for, especially here on the continent. I read and speak Danish and Dutch fluently, so that shouldn't be too difficult. Most days I read several Dutch and Danish newspapers and bloggs so I get a different outlook of how things are going on and of cause Gandalf is a great source. Let me give you a good example. Denmark has in many ways turned the corner, they have lost there fear and have in fact gone on to the attack. I was reading a Danish Blogg the other day and it seems that the Imman who had cause all the trouble over the cartoons was traveling on a bus in Copenhagen when an old lady getting off the bus turned to him and said “ You are a very Stupid Man” the bus cheered. This says a hell of a lot. A minister in the Government who has nothing to do with immigration or such like is supposed to have accused someone of “ lying like an Immam” I cannot verify this as my E-mail contact in Denmark is on Holiday, if this could become a figure of speech in Britain, it would mean we had turned the corner. The biggest selling book in Denmark at the moment is a book written by two ex cabinet minister and is called “Jihadis og naivister” I think you can work out the meaning for yourself.

The only problem is that I don't have you E-mail address, you forgot to put yours in your Blogg profile, if you want my E-mail you will have to go and get it from Gandalf, you might also like to use some of the cartoons I have sent him, I am certain he wouldn't mind he has just put one of mine, I sent him a couple of days ago, up on his blogg just now. Anyway keep up the good work it really is a good start. The nice thing about Blogging is that it is that it is anonymous, which makes it democratic, it makes for a level playing field. If its good it gets read, you are not automatically derided or patronised if you come from a WORKING CLASS background, which is what I definitely come from, and I suspect you do yourself. It is having faith in yourself and I can assure you, you have nothing to fear the Blogg is going to be good. Let me give you an example of what I mean. I posted one of my link to you Blogg on Jihad Watch, I will just paste the following comment that came directly after my posting.


Oh, good for Sir Henry Morgan!!!
Will definitely check it out! Thanks.

Congratulations.

9:04 PM  
Blogger Sir Henry Morgan said...

Miner

I corrected my error with the e-mail contact. It's there now.

And you're spot-on correct about origins. And I can out-"in my day" anyone. I was born homeless, and spent a total of four years homeless by the time I was eleven, in two lots of two years.

You in the mine at 15, me in the barracks same age.

I don't plan to be a blogger who posts and forgets - I'll read the comments and get involved.

Someone (was it you?) posted a link today that led me to read one of the best posts I've ever read. Needless to say, I now have a desktop shortcut to it for a daily visit.

http://librabunda.blogspot.com/

9:20 PM  
Blogger Yorkshireminer said...

Dear Sir Henry,

I'll mail you in the morning. I have just realised how lucky I have been. I have by the way answered a post of yours over at Gandalf Blogg, you might be intrested. I am certain it will prickle your curiosity.

Deep regards.

10:13 PM  
Blogger Always On Watch said...

Your blog's title caught my eye because I recently posted about La Reconquista.

Don't be nervous about blogging. Just jump in! That's what I did around 17 months ago.

10:28 PM  
Blogger Dinah Lord said...

ding-ding-ding Sir Henry!

I do believe you are on to something here.

Thank God for the counters...now if we can just get the rest of the world to sit up and take notice.

Cheers - Dinah Lord

1:50 AM  
Blogger rockmother said...

Great work, Sir Henry! Keep it up!

6:00 AM  
Blogger gandalf said...

Avast sir henry
as you can see I have now put the sitemeter up, I will configure the thing later.

your first post has gone well, I will post mine when I have finished it, just a bit stuck at the moment

I have also deleted the test posts

10:59 AM  
Blogger Sir Henry Morgan said...

Dinah, Rockmother (and there was me thinking it had something to do with the Stones, rather than, when I went to look, stones)

Thank you both. Good for the morale.

Miner

Yes, I looked him up on Wiki. Thank goodness for Chinese Gordon, eh? On the other hand, Hung did have a few good policies - certainly better than Mo anyway. And if Hung had won, I don't think WE'd be having trouble with Islam just now - Islam might just be slugging it out with China.

He was a bit of a loon though, wasn't he - and never mind Mo's eleven wives - that bloke had 83 concubines. He was definitely a bit more up for it than I am.

Now, time for a trip to the pictures:

http://neoconcommandcenter.blogspot.com/2006/09/putting-it-back-into-context.html

6:31 PM  
Blogger Giraldus Cambrensis said...

Hi Henry

Just a note to say well done - a good start.

Keep up the good work.

I would imagine at the end of this month, when Ramadan comes to an end, we will have the usual orgy of Islamic bloodletting that usually happens.

Last year in Bangladesh, there were hardly any big terrorist attacks from October 4 to the start of November, but as soon as Ramadan was over, their attacks were far worse, using suicide bombers for the first time in the nation's history.

Ramadan is the month that Muslims use to plot their revenge against unbelievers for the crime of existing.

6:37 PM  
Blogger PD111 said...

SHM

If one examines the last graph, as you rightly point out, is not linear. However, ignoring the squiggles, it is piece-wise linear.

If one draws a straight line through the first part of the curve, ignoring, the squiggles, and a straight line through the steeply rising curve, the intersection of these two lines gives a break point. This seems to occur around period 8 of the six month intervals. What does this corrspond to in actual date? Does this tie in to any significant event?

10:53 PM  
Blogger heroyalwhyness said...

Great use of the data provided at RoP.

Re your question:

"Another question that this data may contribute towards answering, is whether or not there is a controlling mind (organisation) conducting this war on the enemy’s behalf."

It would be of interest to see how many peaks in terror activity are tied to Friday sermons.

Noted on several anti-jihad blogs is the remarkable availability of large quantities of foreign flags (for burning) as well as the enormous banners (professionally prepared) available in the poorest communities. It does appear that many of the anti-western demonstrations as well as Eurabian car-b-ques are choreographed.

12:57 AM  
Blogger jakejacobsen said...

If this is indeed your first post I assure you, you have a bright future in blogging sir. Truly excellent and important work you've done here.

I've linked this as well and will add you to my blogroll.

All the best!

5:38 AM  
Blogger Beholdthelantern said...

Fantastic post Sir Henry Morgan. I found your Blog through Gandalfs superb 'Up Pompeii' Blog. I look forward to more! It would seem the number of people who are looking for more than the BBC allow us to know grows. Long may it continue, and with the work and writings from people such as yourself it will.

Many thanks.

9:08 AM  
Blogger Kelticman said...

Terrific Sir Henry factual and logical. We require this level headed approach to counter all the emotional nonsense purveyed in the press.

In particular the Thialand insight gives me great comfort that I am not alone in believing this was a devious coup carried out with Machiavellin precission. Well done

11:55 AM  
Blogger Sir Henry Morgan said...

PD

Here are the numbers I made the picture from

Period
09/01 – 02/02 40
03/02 – 08/02 47
09/02 – 02/03 48
03/03 – 08/03 73
09/03 – 02/04 68
03/04 – 08/04 83
03/05 – 08/05 91
09/05 – 02/06 134
03/06 – 08/06 185

Between each marked even number on the picture there is, of course the appropriate odd number.

We're dealing in averages over time here, so it's difficult to pin down anything to a particular date. However, the intersection point you're talking about is approx - depending on how you draw the line - on the vertical from number 8. That is the average number of attacks per month in the period March 05 to August 05 - midpoint is the month of June 05.

A point to note here is that George Bush started his second term of Office in Jan 05, but was actually elected in Nov 04.

Now then, if we draw a vertical from the (hidden) number 7 it coincides precisely with the lowest point of the latest lull. That is the average monthly attacks for the six months Sept 2004-Feb 2005. The mid-point for that period is Nov. 2004 - the exact same month George was re-elected. That is also the point at which the "long" surge started - six months later we're at the intersection point you mentioned.

Is that just co-incidence? Because the lull/surge pattern was already apparent long before then. And if you go back to the three-month averages, and the monthlies,there is also a minor lull in what on this graph shows as a long surge.

The start of the line was the average monthly attacks for the period Sept 01- Feb 02. ('1' on the graph periods)Attacks were already rising, but I suspect that if we had data from before then it would probably be shown that things were just coming out of a lull and had actually just started rising. But that's just supposition - go with what we've got. They were rising.

Move forward to (hidden) number 3, again it's the period Sept02 - Feb 03 (mid month is Nov), and attacks are just coming out of a lull and rising.

Number 5: Sep 03-Feb 05 - out of a lull and rising

Number 7: Sep-Feb - out of a lull and rising.

Point to note is that by the period Sep-Feb each year, attacks have already started rising. I've tried comparing with the three and one-monthly averages but it's hard to see the wood for the trees on that scale

I think that the whole war underwent a state-change at about the time of that intersection, and really took off.

I suspect it's to do with resources, not calendar or wider world events but I'm always prepared to change my mind in light of new evidence, or even argument (you did that to me once before with your points about the advantages to us of a Monarchy in this situation) and the lulls are literally, a girding of the loins for another push, and sometime in the period Sep 2004 and Feb 2005 they reached a critical mass. Notable here is a recent report I read (I think the Guardian, but I'm not sure - I've got to organise my information-collection a little better. Give me time, I'm still young at this stuff) where a high-level Taliban man said he had so many (500 he said - pass the salt, but whatever) suicide bombers available, but was having difficulty finding the resources to kit them all out. That interview was last week. And it fits perfectly with this lull/surge pattern, with it just being about resources.

And another thought that's just occurred to me while discussing this - if I'm wrong and it is to do with calendar or events worldwide, then shouldn't I be looking at this in terms of the Muslim Lunar calendar rather than our Solar calendar? A 336-day year instead of a 365-day year? We're all thinking about this in terms of our own psychology - what about the Muslim psychology? Know your enemy.

For now though, I still think it's about gathering resources for "the next big push".

Now I've got work to do - college stuff, Got to prepare the next blog, which will continue this one. I've got last month's attack data to integrate into this - and I've got someone checking this lot out that I've got to send stuff to. And I want to have a look at the pictures that would come from averaging over different time periods - 60 is such a wonderful number - can look monthly, 2-monthly averages, 3, 4, 5, 6. 10, 12 even 15 20. See what comes out.

I'll check in a couple of times every day.

1:20 PM  
Blogger PD111 said...

SHM

Its good to know that the break point does indeed have significance.

You are doing a lot of work averaging over different intervals.

Have you considered spectral analysis? Spectral analysis allows you to sift through this sort of data. You can also filter out certain spectral components viz high frequency or low frequency or bit of both. Having done this you can go back to the time data using this spectral data, and see either long term trends (high frequency cut out), or the general throb of continuous Jihad (low frequency cut out).

10:28 PM  
Blogger PD111 said...

PS

SHM posted: We're dealing in averages over time here, so it's difficult to pin down anything to a particular date.

Using spectral analysis will allow you to 'pinpoint' events to the accuracy of the time intervals at which data is taken. For instance, if you have data on a weekly basis, the accuracy will be about 10 days.

10:30 PM  
Blogger Joe Cool said...

Dear Henry,

I read about 20 Islam-related blogs on a daily basis.

I was happy to find a reference to your article at Infidel Bloggers Alliance.

Excellent!

I'm looking forward to your next posts!

11:04 PM  
Blogger Jason_Pappas said...

Excellent work! A good quantitative study & nice write-up.

12:55 AM  
Blogger MeaninglessHotAir said...

Ok, you're numerical analysis seems sound enough provided that I can trust you personally. (But how can I, since I don't know you?) I could download the data and check it for myself, but I'm too lazy.

The real question though, which is swept under the carpet here is: how can we trust the original data? How do you know that what is posted on Religion of Peace is valid? What is their methodology? If the BBC has been lying to you all these years, why not Religion of Peace?

6:03 AM  
Blogger Emerson Twain said...

Sir Henry,

Don't forget: Islam is still on the lunar calender; Allah started his career as the moon god of Mohammed's tribe and all of Islam still lives there. The solar calender is an invention of the agriculturist and the builders of civilization--the lunar calender is a remnant of the hunter-gatherer and his direct descendant, the caravan raider. Look for correlations with lunar events.

-Emerson

2:50 AM  
Blogger BeckoningChasm said...

A lot of good information here; you've done a great service by graphing all this.

9:02 PM  
Blogger daddyx said...

Interesting piece, and welcome to the fight.

Hero and pd11 both posted some pretty interesting observations, which I've seen floating around for a while now.

Since religion and state exist in a mutually parasitic embrace within the Middle East, how many of the acts are being fanned by Middle Eastern regimes.

These regimes depend upon the clerics as agitprops for their schemes, and the clerics depend upon the local regimes for their funding, protection, and power.

These regimes could use the Mosques and Madrasses as training grounds, supply depots, propoganda spreading, intelligence collecting, and the informal collections of funds for "fifth columnists" operating under the banner of a religious ideal which furthers these regimes influence within the foreign states.

None of this is unheard of, since it's similar to the old Soviet model of revolutionary cells, nor are the ideas that the Mosques or Madrasses would be used in such a manner.

3:10 AM  
Blogger snowonpine said...

Someone here questioned the data that you used as the basis for your graphs.

I used to be a researcher in a U.S. government research organization and collected similar data. Several problems soon became apparent: one was how a "terrorist" act was defined, another was the accuracy and completeness of the reporting of such incidents. Getting a clear and accurate picture was not easy.

In the absence of your own investigators on the scene, you had to rely on newspapers, wire services and other second hand sources for your data.

Not every terrorist attack is reported, not every such attack is recognized as being terrorist in nature and there is also the possiblity that the organizations doing the reporting have a political agenda requiring that they either don't report terrorist attacks, report them but don't characterize them as terrorist or report an attack but give so little information that a reader cannot really determine if an attack was a terrorist attack or not.

I believe that many terrorist attacks are underreported. Cases in point are the growing intifada in France and the reluctance of British and other media to identify Muslims, as opposed ot youths or Asian or South Asian youths, as perpetrators.

3:56 PM  
Blogger Mr. Spog said...

Sir Henry,

This is an off-topic response to your comment at Jihadwatch,

"...There is no difference here between Labour, Tory (I defy anyone to find a whit of difference between Blair and Cameron), or Liberal Democrats (how would that be for a political party name in America?).

I get so depressed about it sometimes. We need HONEST politicians, or better still non-politician politicians (i.e. honest blunt-talking ordinary folk), and I can't think where we're going to find them, or get them into parliament if we do. A parliament full of people who have no personal ambitions for senior office - and have to be REQUIRED to serve in such office - and skins thick enough to withstand the flamethrowers of the multi-culti industry would help. I'm at least half convinced that election by lot, rather than ballot, might be the answer. Conscription rather than election.

I sometimes think the very act of putting yourself forward for election, and campaigning for it (i.e. demonstrating that you WANT power), should disqualify you from the job..."


I have thought along similar lines about elections by lot. One problem would be that they would tend to produce very amateurish, inexperienced governing assemblies. But perhaps this could be countered by giving each representative or "juror" ample funds to hire political advisors of his/her own choosing. (Somewhat in the same way that ordinary citizens, who don't understand law or court procedure, can, if they have sufficient funds, hire lawyers to represent them in legal proceedings.) Those advisors would tend to stick around for several parliamentary sessions and would be more familiar with the issues than the average citizen.

"Political jurors" wouldn't necessarily need thick skins. They would presumably have to vote by secret ballot in any case, so that they were not subject to bribery. Then they wouldn't be open to criticism for their personal voting decisions. You'd need only a few people (whether from inside or outside the jury) willing to speak in favour of the unpopular or "illegitimate" side of each issue.

The government of British Columbia, Canada, not long ago used a randomly selected assembly of citizens to come up with a recommendation for changing the province's electoral system (a fairly complicated technical question), and it did a pretty good job as far as one can tell.

Another radical constitutional possibility was described by Mrs. Thatcher's guru, Friedrich Hayek, in Constitution of Liberty and Law, Legislation and Liberty (if I remember correctly). Basically I think his idea was that the government makes laws to suit the convenience of the state, and that it has to be checked by some external power if we are to avoid a state with ever-expanding power. What he suggested was to subject the government to fundamental laws laid down by a legislature which was not involved in government -- one which represented the society rather than the state. This legislative assembly would be elected, but party politicians would not be allowed to sit in it. Its members would sit for a single, lengthy term and so should not have to worry about making unpopular decisions (they could not be re-elected in any case). Such a body would resemble the kind of Supreme Court we have in Canada, which is increasingly getting involved in legislation; but it would be popularly elected, rather than consisting exclusively of ex-lawyers appointed by prime ministers.

I think one should also consider whether it is a good idea for voting rights to be extended to everyone as a matter of course, although neither would it be feasible or desirable to restrict voting rights to a minority of the overall population. For example, why should repeat criminal offenders have any say in making laws which they have no intention of obeying?

P.S. "Spog" is just a nonsense word coming from my blog's name "spogbolt" (anagram of "blogspot").

12:04 AM  
Blogger Gordon said...

Excellent data set analyses.
But what's new? The French philosopher, writer an Academician, John d'Ormesson said that the British Raj in india put an end to a thousand years of massacres of Hindus by Muslims. Or at least until fairly recently.

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Would the number and size of the ZUS in France be a good indicator
http://i.ville.gouv.fr/divbib/doc/chercherZUS.htm

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