Is Islam Waging War on the World? Part 2.

To new readers who have not been here before, this is not a stand-alone post. To properly understand it, you’ll need to scroll down (or go to the archive) and read my earlier post first.

I am late with this post; it should have been up Friday. I apologise for this. Early in the week I received a not overtly hostile e-mail warning me that I appeared to have “… attracted someone’s attention”. Next day my comms. went down. Coincidence? Maybe, maybe not. However, if it wasn’t coincidence that just means I’m on the right track. I have long had a personal motto: “The more they hammer you, the more you know you’re getting to them.”

I was remiss in last week’s post. I supplied misinformation, and I apologise for it. The information on which I based my graphs and conclusions actually understated the true situation. I had intended to tell you this right at the beginning, but I forgot. Go here to guage the full extent by which the situation is worse than I am able to tell you, and why:

http://www.thereligionofpeace.com/Pages/TheList.htm

In addition, what is reported in Religion of Peace’s site as one attack is frequently several that just happened to occur on the same day in approximately the same geographical location. For example, take the following entries from just last month:

9/27/06 Iraq Baghdad 8 42 Two separate Jihad attacks leave at least eight dead and over forty injured.

9/27/06 India Srinagar 2 0 Two cops are gunned down by the Mujahideen in separate attacks.

9/26/06 Iraq Baghdad 40 34 A series of bomb blasts and other Jihad attacks leave at least forty dead and dozens more in agony.

9/21/06 Iraq Baghdad 28 22 Six Jihad attacks leave two-dozen Iraqis dead and several more with burns and bullet wounds.

9/8/06 India Malegaon 31 297 Pakistani-backed militants are thought to be responsible for multiple bomb blasts that leave thirty-one dead and three-hundred injured.

So what is ostensibly five attacks, and listed as such, is at least fourteen different incidents, even if we take “a series” and “multiple” to mean only two each. And each of these incidents is presented in my work as being of the same status of individual “attack” as, for example this:

9/6/06 Pakistan Kaga 1 0 A 12-year-old girl is killed in her home by al-Qaeda backed militants.

or these:

9/12/06 Turkey Amed 10 13 An ultra-nationalist group with Islamist ties bombs a bus stop, killing ten Kurds, including seven children.

9/15/06 Iraq Mussayab 1 0 Islamic radicals kidnap a man, cut off his legs and head, then dump his body in the river.

This sort of thing is repeated throughout the five years of Religion of Peace’s files. No, I’m not criticising. So as you can see, the situation is far more serious than even I say. Bear that in mind when reading my work.

I left off my last post promising to return to a few items. First I mentioned returning to the issue of whether or not our occupation of Iraq is acting as a recruiting sergeant for terrorism. A simple look at the numbers will answer that one.

First I made a graph of all the terror attacks month by month since the beginning of September 2001, and up to the end of September 2006 – 61 months. Then I wrote in the “Best Fit” (polynomial) line to make a bit of sense of the data (actually, Excel did this). You will notice that the best-fit line looks exponential. More later. Quite conclusive, I believe.

Graph 1

The “R-squared” number refers to the level of confidence in the accuracy of the best fit line. The nearer it is to one, the greater the level of confidence, provided nothing changes. As this is written on past data, and makes no projection, then nothing can change. A confidence level of 0.8376 is worth betting your house on, and on things like this, is about as near as you can get to a racing certainty. Even the statement that the sun will rise tomorrow wouldn’t rate a ‘1.0’, because who knows what may be hurtling straight at us at a fraction under the speed of light, from out there in the void? That’s my good friend Captain Paranoia speaking. I suppose the fact that you will one day be dead would score a ‘1.0’, but nothing else.

We invaded Iraq where the number 19 is on this graph; by 21 the whole thing was done and dusted and we were in occupation. You’ll notice that that’s about the time the whole thing started taking off, and has never looked back since. We had Afghanistan done and dusted by number 3 on the graph, but on average attacks dropped for a bit after that, and never averaged more than fifty per month again until after our occupation of Iraq. It’s not so much that it inspired them, I don’t think – inspiration isn’t worth a hill of beans if you don’t have the means to carry out the attacks – as that it gave them the means to do the things they do on what had previously been to them an unimaginable scale. On that point I don’t need to say any more than … is there anyone reading this who’s stupid enough to believe that Saddam didn’t have weapons, ammunition, explosives and cash caches spread all over Iraq? A big chunk of those caches are now distributed out to wherever they will do the most good (bad, from our point of view), and most likely plenty more where they came from. And not just in Iraq, I’m sure. I’ll return to this in a short while, in relation to Thailand (frankly, for Mr. Bush and Mr. Blair not to have realised this in advance has got to be considered an act of criminal idiocy. They should have used more appropriately-sized occupation armies right from the start). That is exactly what was planned in this country in 1940, in case Hitler ever succeeded in getting his armies across the Channel and occupying us. Did someone think Saddam wouldn’t have the same idea? He may be a Muslim. He may be a thug. But he is not and never has been stupid.

And as for the Koranic texts telling the jihadis that they must do the things they’re doing, just a few of the hundreds of available quotes ought to do the trick (perhaps our political and media elites might like to take a bit of time at these texts before again trying to tell us that Islam is a “Religion of Peace”?):

Slay them wherever ye find them and drive them out of the places whence they drove you out, for persecution is worse than slaughter. - 2:191

Fight against them until idolatry is no more and Allah's religion reigns supreme. (different translation: ) Fight them until there is no persecution and the religion is God's entirely. - Sura 2:193 and 8:39

..... martyrs.... Enter heaven - Surah 3:140-43

You must not think that those who were slain in the cause of Allah are dead. They are alive, and well-provided for by their Lord. - Surah 3:169-71

Let those fight in the cause of God who sell the life of this world for the hereafter. To him who fights in the cause of God, whether he is slain or victorious, soon we shall give him a great reward. - Surah 4:74

Make war on them until idolatry is no more and Allah's religion reigns supreme - 8:39

It is not for any Prophet to have captives until he has made slaughter in the land. - 8:67

Allah will humble the unbelievers. Allah and His apostle are free from obligations to idol-worshipers. Proclaim a woeful punishment to the unbelievers. - 9:2-3

When the sacred months are over, slay the idolaters wherever you find them. Arrest them, besiege them, and lie in ambush everywhere for them. - 9:5

O Prophet! Make war on the unbelievers and the hypocrites. Be harsh with them. Their ultimate abode is hell, a hapless journey's end. - 9:73

Allah has purchased of their faithful lives and worldly goods, and in return has promised them the Garden. They will fight for His cause, kill and be killed. - 9:111

Fight unbelievers who are near to you. 9:123 (different translation:

Believers! Make war on the infidels who dwell around you. Let them find harshness in you. (another source: ) Ye who believe! Murder those of the disbelievers....

And this one might explain a thing or two:

When you meet the unbelievers, smite their necks, then when you have made wide slaughter among them, tie fast the bonds, then set them free, either by grace or ransom, until the war lays down its burdens. - 47:4

(different translation: ) When you meet the unbelievers in the battlefield, strike off their heads, and when you have laid them low, bind your captives firmly.

Muslims are harsh against the unbelievers, merciful to one another. - 48:25

"I have been ordered by Allah to fight and kill all mankind until they say, 'No God except Allah and Muhammad is the prophet of Allah' (Hadith Sahih)."

I think we get the idea. Muslims like to quote the gentler Suras when engaging in d'awa and al-taqqiya, but what they don’t tell you is that the gentler Suras are what Mohammed used to say in his early days in Mecca, when he was weak. The Suras of the sword are what came later after he was well established and strong. Later Suras abrogate earlier ones (that too is said in the form of a sura; I just can’t find its direct reference just now. Input needed).

So yes, our invasion and occupation of Iraq, and their holy texts, both inspired them and gave them the means. And their holy (I don’t like to use that word for what is little more than violence-pornography) texts tell them they must do these things, right down to the beheadings,the limb amputations, and other tortures, including burning. You don’t hear from the msm about even a small fraction of the beheadings and throat-cuttings that are happening around the world wherever Islam is present in large numbers. I suggest you visit Religion of Peace and read their Attack files; all of them. Failing that, e-mail me and I’ll send you my “Specials” file, culled from RoP’s files (they gather the data, I only borrow and use it).

I promised to return to the issue of tactics, and the question of a “controlling Mind (organisation)”.

Take a look at this (ignore Thailand for the moment; that has become a different case since the coup on September 19^th. Though it’s noticable that for a few days before and after the coup, attacks ceased. They have started up again since then, but all that does is provide evidence towards confirming the things I said about Thailand in my first post; as does the fact that the Muslim coup leader has started messing about with the Thai constitution):

Graph 2

Perhaps it’s just me, and my best friend Captain Paranoia, but that looks like an awful lot of co-ordination from around the world in the surges and lulls. And has anyone else noticed this about all their frenzied rampages when they’re protesting some imagined offence or other – an awful lot of protest placards appear as if from nowhere all written in English? And apparently professionally produced. In places where most people can’t even write their own language (and I know for a fact I’m not the only person who noticed the Pope protester who was waving his English language placard upside-down – somewhere in the Land of the Pure, I believe). … and all carrying basically the same words wherever in the world they are? Or is it just me? Oh well.

“Land of the Pure” is a literal translation of “Pakistan”.

None of this is proof of an organising mind, that’s for sure – but don’t step in it just the same.

And take a look at this nice little picture. Before reading what my best friend has to say about it, have a think: what do you see in it? It’s measured over the past five years, including Thailand, and the monthly attacks are averaged on an annual basis.

Graph 3

On the “All attacks” line, there is a slowing down of the rise just before the attacks started in Thailand, and continuing through the first two years of the Thailand insurgency until it was well-established and self-sustaining. Attacks in the rest of the world outside Iraq actually decreased over this time.

I know it’s probably only speculation based on paranoia, but if it is speculation it’s certainly an impressive piece of speculation, and if it’s paranoia it’s a cracker, but:

It looks an awful lot to me as if resources, including planning resources (and that’s where the controlling mind comes into the picture), were withdrawn from the rest of the world and diverted to Thailand to get the insurgency there started, then once that insurgency became self-sustaining, those resources were directed back to where they came from. As I said in my last post – the opening of another front.

This is a wider tactical move that may be repeated in the future. I suggest we – in reality me, I suppose – ought to keep a weather eye out for for another sustained slowing or even reduction in attacks outside Iraq. If this happens we ought to consider where yet another front might be about to be opened. Put bluntly: where is there a lot of Muslims where there is little or no trouble? Which region of what country? Anyone got any suggestions?

Everything I’ve done so far is based on the whole population of attacks and I’ve had no need to use statistics, or make projections. That is about to change. I’ve used the data from the past two years-worth of attacks for the projections that follow. They do not make comfortable viewing.

In the first graph, I’ve projected (well, Excel has; thank you Mr. Gates. You get a lot of stick, but you do do some good stuff) the number of attacks forward one year based on the number and pattern of attacks over the past two years.

Graph 4

As you can see, all the projections comprise an exponential curve (for now, ignore Thailand; I’ll return to it shortly), and every category of attacks I’ve defined (‘all’; ‘all excluding Iraq’, etc.) show a near doubling by this time next year; and acording to this picture, it looks like we can expect ‘all attacks’, including Iraq, to be somewhere around 250/month early in the new year. That’s near enough to check up on when the time comes. I’ll return to this picture after the end of January, then we can guage exactly how prescient I am. I need to be tested before you can decide how much you can rely on what I say. I’ll be honest.

You can note that the confidence level (R-squared) is 0.8421 for the ‘all attacks’ projection, with a steadily reducing confidence level down to the “all attacks excluding Iraq, Afghanistan and Thailand”, with even this last showing 0.6+ : a level it’s worth betting real money on.

Thailand. With Thailand, though the curve is still exponential, the level of confidence in the projection is only 0.3606. This well expresses the fluid situation in Thailand at the moment and the relatively low number of attacks in relation to the whole (the less data there is to work with, the less confidence we can have in the projection. This always applies) and gives a validity to the very notion of a level of confidence measure for predictions, i.e. the coup has thrown a spanner into the prediction machine, thus an appropriately low level of confidence in the projection. There was a pause in attacks for a few days before the coup, which continued for a few days afterwards. We’ll just have to keep an eye on there for now, though what is happening fits everything I suggested in my first post. I note that attacks have resumed, and since September 27^th, when they properly started cranking up again after the coup, up until now, 1330 GMT today October 7^th (11 days), there have been eleven attacks; an average of one a day. I reckon that Muslim general has about all the excuse he needs to secure his coup with a crackdown. Expect it any time soon.

Of course, confidence levels only have validity as long as there are no changes in basic conditions. For example, confidence levels would no longer apply if we pulled out of Iraq, or invaded … Algeria, say?

Those would be examples of changes in basic conditions, and would lead to a need for recalculation. No changes in basic conditions, and the predictions, with the appropriate confidence levels, are valid.

For my projections I’ve used data from only the past two years. It is very little different from the projections from five years’ data, with almost no difference in level of confidence (I’ve checked).

Now then: what do I mean when I say the curves of the projections are exponential. Well, look at the above graph: attacks were running at an average of about (very rough off-the-top-of-my-head working here) 80 attacks a month two years ago. It took two years for them to double (rather more than, actually) to something like 180 attacks a month. But if you look at the projection, the first doubling that took two years, is repeated again but this time in only one year. I might better illustrate by doing another projection, this time for two years ahead:

Graph 5

Now these projections are terrifying, and for all the measurement categories I’ve used except for the currently fluid Thailand, the confidence levels are very high – extremely high for ‘all attacks’.

It took two years from September 2004 to September 2006 for attacks to about double (more than), then in another year, they doubled again from that new already-doubled number, according to the projection. Then in another year, they (more than) double yet again. If we start at the original number, about 80 attacks a month, in two years it doubles, another one year and it will have (more than) quadrupled, another year after that and it will have increased by eight times ( I don’t know the word for that one). Barring some change in underlying factors this will keep happening.

That is what is meant by an exponential curve – an accelerating increase. I note the same pattern for all my measurement categories, though the multiplication factors are lower as we go down the range (where we are using less and less data to calculate with).

Send a copy of this and my previous blog post to your democratic – yes yes, I know – representative, now, wherever you are; whatever country. Our leaders need to understand that we really are in a World War that is developing at a terrifying rate. No, I am not a PC Marxoid peacenik: this is an existential war against an ideology of the type that had to be fought against Naziism, and needs to be addressed as such by our leaders. That includes addressing, by whatever means necessary, the fifth column that is living amongst us, and it’s PC supporters. I have no personal beef against individual Muslims, just as I’m sure my ancestors had no personal beef against individual Germans (I know this as a fact regarding both my father and grandfather), it’s just that, as in those days it was individual Germans who carried the Nazi virus inside their heads, so today it’s individual Muslims who carry the Islam virus inside their heads.

I hope that all made sense to you. Reading it through, it sounds to me like the ramblings of a drunk Captain Paranoia (I’m teetotal).

I was going to address the question of Saddam in this post. I’m already running two days late due to my … comms failure, so I’ll leave it until next time. I wont be addressing the numbers again, probably until the new year, unless sudden changes occur between now and then.

I have a question to put to the vote:

I am, by nature a soldier, or more precisely a warrior, not a spook, and I hate this anonymity stuff. In place of the woodcut of my esteemed (by me, anyway – now there was a man who knew what do do with his enemies: go ask a Spaniard. No, I don’t wish to give offence to people who are now good friends; only illustrating a point) historical namesake, should I post my picture? I have no problem with my enemies knowing exactly who I am as I am coming down the road. Oh indeed no! It also means my allies will know who I am. Would you like to be able to put a face to the name? Vote in the comments. I’ll abide by the majority.

And to all those who’ve sent me kind words by e-mail: thank you, it is much appreciated. And to those who’ve sent constructive criticism, thank you for that too; that too is much appreciated. I have so far received no hate-mail or death threats, but we can but live in hope.

All the numbers I used in my first post, and the graphs I produced from them, have been checked by a German from I know not where, and an academic from a prestigious American university. Both gave me a clean bill of health . Thank you both; you both know who you are. And a special thank you to the academic for the e-mail lesson in using Excel. A good bit of this post came from that lesson.

All the inferences I drew are, of course mine, as are all my conclusions. For these I take full responsibility.